Blog Articles by keyword: dps



WoW patch 4.0 is live...

by Tachyon on Wed. 13. October 2010, 23:45

Filed under: patch 4.0, cataclysm, mage, fire, DPS

WoW patch 4.0 went live today on the EU realms. Of course half of the addons were broken (I couldn't event cast as spell) and had to be disabled, and some re-enabled as they were fixed with patches that were drippling in in hourly intervals.

After fixing my UI, I respecced fire (my new spec is 2/31/3 Fire) and did some tests at the target dummies.
14k DPS sustained, only selfbuffed, that's just plain awesome, but see for yourselves:



(Tip: switch to HD, I recorded with 1080p)

Simulation: Partial Resists

by Tachyon on Sun. 13. June 2010, 03:13

Filed under: dps, simulation, theorycrafting, fire, resists

The development of the new DPS-simulation engine is progressing as planned, and requires more and more time doing research of the spell mechanics, to find out how the spell effects work in detail. It's very hard to find any fundamental information on that topic, so I had to switch back to experimental mode and find it out myself.

One particular question I wanted to have aswered today:

How much of a spell is partially resisted (absorbed) by boss targets?
Bosses have a built in resistence mechanic that lets them absorb a part of the damage. The common knowledge is that bosses count as maxlvl+3 mobs (in the WotLK version: level 83), and that they gain 5 resistence per additional level (15 overall). But I have noticed before that the resists fluctuate, sometimes more is resisted, sometimes less, and in some cases nothing is resisted at all.

Partial Resists

To test the partial resists, I unequipped any items that have a +Spelldamage proc, and casted Arcane Missiles on a Heroic Training Dummy. To record the data, I used Fraps and viewed the video in slow motion to note down the damage and absorbs for each tick.
Here's an excerpt of the collected data (in brackets: partial resists)
1099 (275), 2147 (275), 2446 (137), 1374, 1236 (137), 1374, 1236 (137), 2684, 1374, 2147 (275), 1236 (137), 1099 (275), 2415 (137) ...
The resists were either 0, 137 or 275. In relation to the damage before resists, this was exactly 0%, 10% and 20%. The spell crit modifier for Arcane Missiles (with CSD and the AM Glyph) is 1.95375, and the critical spell hits show that the resistance happens before the crit factor is applied.

Now I needed more samples to quantify how many spells have 0%, 10% and 20% resists. For that I parsed the combat log from our raid tonight with a total of 487 samples on 3 bosses. Result:
  • 257x 0% resist (~ 1/2)
  • 152x 10% resist (~ 1/3)
  • 87x 20% resist (~ 1/6)
I have yet to verify these observations with other spells, but I assume for now that all spells are affected the same by partial resists.

EDIT 2010-06-14: Interesting side note
Ingite is affected by partial resists as well. Critical fire spells get thus taxed twice (once for the spell, once for the ignite DoT). This effect is known as Double Dipping.

Simulation: DPS Volatility

by Tachyon on Tue. 08. June 2010, 23:20

Filed under: simulation, theorycrafting, dps

Hey folks, it's been a while since my last post, sorry for that. I've been raiding with my new fire specs during the last weeks, and we managed to kill the Lich King in ICC 25, and are now working on the ICC 25 HC bosses (9/12 so far).



I've also been doing some research on stats scaling for the fire spec, but haven't drawn a conclusion yet. Some sources (like Rawr) state that crit rating is the best stat by far, but given the nature of the Ignite mechanics (ignite munching, losing a huge ignite bank when your target dies) I have some sincere doubts. Thaarsis (one of the other mages in my guild) pointed me to Greatschock <For the Horde>'s Armory profile (you remember, the first mage which participated in a 25 HC LK kill) who had replaced all his yellow gems with pure +20 crit rating gems. We both were puzzeled, but by now Greatschock went back to SP/crit gems, seems like too much crit was not that great after all.

Limits of the old simulation

For the Arcane posting series, I used a simulation program I wrote to observe and analyze the most interesting aspects of the arcane spec (spell rotations, the impact of the T10 boni, stats scaling).
Simulating arcane rotations was fairly easy, every spell does direct damage, and stuff procs on sucessful spell casts rather than on inpact, which was easy to model.

But now that I want to observe the Fire spec in detail, I have to rewrite the whole simulation from scratch. Fire has effects that proc on spell impact, so you have to take the flight time into consideration. Some effects even have a life of their own (hello Ignite!), so a radical new approach was necessary.

New simulation

The new casting simulation I'm writing is event driven, which eases dealing with concurrent effects (such as the Ignite proc still ticking, the player casting a new spell when the last spell is still on its flight to the target). Everything in the simulation is an Event, and can be scheduled for execution in the Simulation on a given time. Events can interact with the simulation, spawn and schedule new events and even reschedule themselves. Event execution can even be observed using Listeners, making it easy to modularize aspects of the simulation.

The simulation API is not yet complete, but it's growing more and more mature.
It may be a little late for the fire spec, regarding that the Cataclysm expansion is already in the beta, but when the simulation's done I think it will be quite easy to adapt it to the Cataclysm spell mechanics, so it's well worth developing it.

The simulation also doesn't use a fixed player stat model, but allows to take a character out of the armory, and take all individual stats and talent point distribution as well as glyph choices, raid buffs and temporary powerups into account.

I've only modelled arcane so far (so I can compare the outputs of the old and new simulation), but at least I can share some effects I'm dealing with at the moment, or rather one effect in particular: Volatility.

Volatility

As a great part of the logic and results depends on the RNG (random number generator), say whether your spell hits, crits or misses, and the procs involved, the outcome will vary each time the simulation is run. This variance is significant and tells a lot on how to interpret simulated results.

For testing purpose, I did 10 runs with my mage's stats, using an arcane rotation on a 5min fight (no raid buffs, no AP/IV etc). Here's the DPS numbers that came out:

10 Runs:


Once I had less than 6800 DPS, and another time over 7200 DPS, using the same rotation, same stats and same duration. When the outcome is so volatile, it's nigh impossible to draw any conclusions when you vary input parameters.
Any DPS tests you do ingame (be it on the target dummies, or in a raid) are rendered obsolete, as you just cannot obtain enough samples to observe what happens when you do something different. You could test on a target dummy, swap some gems to a useless stat (e.g. Agility), test again and have an increased DPS result.

I did some more runs with the simulation:

1'000 Runs:


Those of you with a background in statistics recognize a gaussian distribution in the samples, and if we do event more runs the bell shape of the distribution curve is obvious:

100'000 Runs:


Look at the x-scale to see how far the minimum and maximum value are apart!
What this means is that to be able to draw conclusions on the average DPS for a given situation, the simulation has to do serious number crunching and do lots and lots of runs to have a stable outcome.

Fascinating, isnt't it? I hope you just learned to not to trust any observations that are drawn out of a handful of samples

Stay tuned for more articles on the progress of the simulation!

EDIT 2010-06-12: Sorry, forgot to enable comments (was disabled by default), commenting is now allowed

Going Arcane, Part 3 - Spell Rotations

by Tachyon on Fri. 20. February 2009, 00:22

Filed under: arcane, spec, raiding, dps, patch, theorycrafting

UPDATE FOR 3.2.2:
For an updated spell rotation analysis for patch 3.2.2+ see 3.2.2 Arcane Mage Changes or Tachyon's Arcane Mage Guide for 3.2.2.
In part 2 of this series, we introduced the theorycrafting basics to calculate the average DPS for the single target arcane spells, as well as the DPM. Now let's look into possible spell rotations.

The arcane spec allows to dynamically tweak the DPS/DPM depending on how many subsequent Arcane Blasts are cast.

The Arcane Blast debuff

Remember that Arcane Blast applies a stackable debuff (up to 3 times), which increases the damage of the next arcane spell by 15% (18% with the Arcane Blast glyph) per stack, but also increases the mana cost of the next Arcane Blast by 200%.
Casting Arcane Missiles or Arcane Barrage will consume that buff and thus reset the stack. Note also that those spells will profit from the increased damage, but will not get a mana penalty.
  • Arcane Blast, 1 stack: increases damage by 18%, next AB costs 3x its base mana
  • Arcane Blast, 2 stacks: increases damage by 36%, next AB costs 5x its base mana
  • Arcane Blast, 3 stacks: increases damage by 54%, next AB costs 7x its base mana

Being to lazy to do all the calculations in a spreadsheet, I wrote a small simulation program in Java instead. Here's the outcome:

DPS/DPM for arcane cast sequences
RotationDamageTimeDPSManaDPMMana/sec
ABx14968.0002.1552305.150245.00020.280113.680
ABx210830.0004.3102512.560980.00011.050227.360
ABx317586.0006.4662719.9702205.0007.980341.040
ABx425236.0008.6212927.3803920.0006.440454.720
ABx532886.00010.7763051.8205635.0005.840522.928
ABx1071136.00021.5523300.71014210.0005.010659.344
ABx100000764994636.000215517.2413549.580171497060.0004.460795.746
ABx0, ABarr3762.0001.2932909.280553.0006.800427.653
ABx1, ABarr9407.0003.4482728.030798.00011.790231.420
ABx2, ABarr15946.0005.6032845.7501533.00010.400273.582
ABx3, ABarr23379.0007.7593013.2902758.0008.480355.476
ABx4, ABarr31029.0009.9143129.8804473.0006.940451.190
ABx5, ABarr38679.00012.0693204.8306188.0006.250512.720
ABx0, Mbarr8812.0002.1554088.770952.0009.260441.728
ABx1, Mbarr15367.0004.3103565.1401197.00012.840277.704
ABx2, Mbarr22815.0006.4663528.7201932.00011.810298.816
ABx3, Mbarr31157.0008.6213614.2103157.0009.870366.212
ABx4, Mbarr38807.00010.7763601.2904872.0007.970452.122
ABx5, Mbarr46457.00012.9313592.6706587.0007.050509.395
ABx0, AM8812.0004.3102044.380952.0009.260220.864
ABx1, AM15367.0006.4662376.7601197.00012.840185.136
ABx2, AM22815.0008.6212646.5401932.00011.810224.112
ABx3, AM31157.00010.7762891.3703157.0009.870292.970
ABx4, AM38807.00012.9313001.0704872.0007.970376.768
ABx5, AM46457.00015.0863079.4406587.0007.050436.624

(AB = Arcane Blast, ABxN = N subsequent AB casts (max. 3 stacks), ABarr = Arcane Barrage, AM = Arcane Missiles, MBarr = AM cast on Missile Barrage)

A first approach towards a new cast sequence

According to these results, you get the highest DPS cycle when using Missile Barrage procs as early as possible. Arcane Missiles however should never be cast without Missile Barrage procs, the DPS is just not competitive without it.

So my first approach (RotationTachyon)was following:
  • Cast AM when MBarr procs, no mater how many stacks of AB you have
  • Otherwise cast AB, stack maximally to 3, then use ABarr if MBarr didn't proc
Running the simulation with this rotation (1'000'000 spells cast) resulted in:
RotationTachyon: 3279.46 DPS, 9.58 DPM

Then I wanted to compare this to the classic rotation:
  • Cast AB until you have 3 stacks
  • Cast AM if MBarr procced, otherwise cast ABarr
RotationClassic: 3351.04 DPS, 9.27 DPM

To my surprise, the classic rotation still had slightly more DPS. This is confusing, as the rotation involved less MBarr procs than the first rotation. I'd have expected to see higher DPS when using more of the high DPS sequences, but obviously that was not the case. To explain this effect, it's crucial to know how to calculate the DPS/DPM of mixed rotations.

Spell rotation: DPS/DPM of mixed cast sequences

The best cast sequence above, ABx0,Mbarr is only sustained for a very short time, so it contributes less to the overall DPS than other rotations which have a longer run time.

The total DPS contribution of a cast sequence is therefore to be weighted by the length of the sequence, the DPS during that lenght, and the probability you are casting it.
DPS := sum(DPS[i]*t[i]*p[i]) / sum(t[i]*p[i])
where DPS[i] is the DPS of Sequencei, t[i] is the cast time of Sequencei, and p is the probability (or percentage of times) we use Sequencei.

To determine the probabilities, the simulation comes to aid again. Results:
RotationTachyon:
ABx3, ABarr 46.5139%
ABx1, MBarr 18.0682%
ABx2, MBarr 14.4659%
ABx3, MBarr 11.6308%
ABx0, MBarr 9.3213%
RotationClassic:
ABx3, MBarr: 53.5976%
ABx3, ABarr: 46.4024%
The calculated weighted DPS matches the results of the simulated DPS, so you can take that formula along with the probabilities as given fact for your own theorycrafting calculations.

In conclusion, the best approach is to use the longest cast sequences that give you good DPS without wasting too much mana, as they often contribute more to the effective DPS than short cast sequences with slightly higher DPS.

Generic pattern of arcane rotations

Basically, every arcane rotation follows the same pattern:
  • If Missile Barrage procced, use it after at least A subsequent Arcane Blast casts
  • If Missile Barrage didn't proc after B subsequent Arcane Blast casts, cast Arcane Barrage instead

There are two paramenters in there, A and B. My suggested rotation was A=0,B=3, while the classic rotation is A=3,B=3.

Using the simulation, I calculated the DPS and DPM for the configurations A=0..6, B=0..6, and here's the result:

.A=0A=1A=2A=3A=4A=5
B=0 3204 DPS
7.43 DPM		 3171 DPS
8.62 DPM		 3219 DPS
8.86 DPM		 3312 DPS
8.44 DPM		 3343 DPS
7.55 DPM		 3366 DPS
6.98 DPM
B=1 3028 DPS
11.66 DPM		3029 DPS
12.21 DPM		3095 DPS
11.8 DPM		3196 DPS
10.56 DPM		 3238 DPS
8.99 DPM		 3271 DPS
8.06 DPM
B=2 3136 DPS
10.93 DPM		3132 DPS
11.23 DPM		3165 DPS
11.09 DPM		3262 DPS
10.08 DPM		 3296 DPS
8.67 DPM		 3321 DPS
7.84 DPM
B=3 3278 DPS
9.58 DPM		 3272 DPS
9.75 DPM		3286 DPS
9.78 DPM		3351 DPS
9.27 DPM		 3374 DPS
8.13 DPM		 3394 DPS
7.43 DPM
B=43371 DPS
8.36 DPM		 3363 DPS
8.47 DPM		3370 DPS
8.56 DPM		3417 DPS
8.34 DPM		 3432 DPS
7.6 DPM		 3445 DPS
7.02 DPM
B=5 3428 DPS
7.78 DPM		 3422 DPS
7.85 DPM		3425 DPS
7.96 DPM		3462 DPS
7.83 DPM		 3470 DPS
7.27 DPM		 3479 DPS
6.82 DPM
B=6 3467 DPS
7.44 DPM		 3462 DPS
7.49 DPM		 3462 DPS
7.59 DPM		3493 DPS
7.52 DPM		 3498 DPS
7.07 DPM		 3503 DPS
6.68 DPM
B=7 3493 DPS
7.22 DPM		 3489 DPS
7.26 DPM		 3488 DPS
7.36 DPM		3516 DPS
7.32 DPM		 3518 DPS
6.92 DPM		 3521 DPS
6.58 DPM
B=8 3513 DPS
7.08 DPM		 3510 DPS
7.1 DPM		 3508 DPS
7.21 DPM		3532 DPS
7.17 DPM		 3534 DPS
6.83 DPM		 3535 DPS
6.51 DPM
B=9 3527 DPS
6.97 DPM		 3525 DPS
6.99 DPM		 3521 DPS
7.08 DPM		3545 DPS
7.06 DPM		3546 DPS
6.76 DPM		3546 DPS
6.46 DPM

In the table above, I grayed out every rotation for which there is a better (more DPS and more DPM) alternative rotation in the table. The remaining rotations have either better DPS or better DPM than any other rotation in the table.

To put the result in a more relative context, let's take the classic rotation (A=3, B=3) as a base (100%) and compare the relative differences:

.A=0A=1A=2A=3A=4A=5
B=0 -4.4% DPS
-19.8% DPM		 -5.4% DPS
-7.0% DPM		 -3.9% DPS
-4.4% DPM		 -1.2% DPS
-9.0% DPM		 -0.2% DPS
-18.6% DPM		 +0.5% DPS
-24.7% DPM
B=1 -9.6% DPS
+25.8% DPM		 -9.6% DPS
+31.7% DPM		 -7.6% DPS
+27.3% DPM		 -4.6% DPS
+13.9% DPM		 -3.3% DPS
-3.0% DPM		 -2.4% DPS
-13.1% DPM
B=2 -6.4% DPS
+17.9% DPM		 -6.5% DPS
+21.1% DPM		 -5.5% DPS
+19.6% DPM		 -2.6% DPS
+8.7% DPM		 -1.6% DPS
-6.5% DPM		 -0.9% DPS
-15.4% DPM
B=3 -2.2% DPS
+3.3% DPM		 -2.4% DPS
+5.2% DPM		 -1.9% DPS
+5.5% DPM		+0.0% DPS
+0.0% DPM		 +0.7% DPS
-12.3% DPM		 +1.3% DPS
-19.8% DPM
B=4 +0.6% DPS
-9.8% DPM		 +0.4% DPS
-8.6% DPM		 +0.6% DPS
-7.7% DPM		 +2.0% DPS
-10.0% DPM		 +2.4% DPS
-18.0% DPM		 +2.8% DPS
-24.3% DPM
B=5 +2.3% DPS
-16.1% DPM		 +2.1% DPS
-15.3% DPM		 +2.2% DPS
-14.1% DPM		 +3.3% DPS
-15.5% DPM		 +3.6% DPS
-21.6% DPM		 +3.8% DPS
-26.4% DPM
B=6 +3.5% DPS
-19.7% DPM		 +3.3% DPS
-19.2% DPM		 +3.3% DPS
-18.1% DPM		 +4.3% DPS
-18.9% DPM		 +4.4% DPS
-23.7% DPM		 +4.5% DPS
-27.9% DPM
B=7 +4.3% DPS
-22.1% DPM		 +4.1% DPS
-21.7% DPM		 +4.1% DPS
-20.6% DPM		 +5.0% DPS
-21.0% DPM		 +5.0% DPS
-25.4% DPM		 +5.1% DPS
-29.0% DPM
B=8 +4.9% DPS
-23.6% DPM		 +4.8% DPS
-23.4% DPM		 +4.7% DPS
-22.2% DPM		 +5.4% DPS
-22.7% DPM		 +5.5% DPS
-26.3% DPM		 +5.5% DPS
-29.8% DPM
B=9 +5.3% DPS
-24.8% DPM		 +5.2% DPS
-24.6% DPM		 +5.1% DPS
-23.6% DPM		 +5.8% DPS
-23.8% DPM		 +5.8% DPS
-27.1% DPM		 +5.8% DPS
-30.3% DPM

Again, the grayed out rotations are to be avoided since there is a better alternative rotation with higher DPS and DPM.
The blue colored rotations are the ones with higher DPS, and the green colored rotations have a higher DPM ratio that the classic rotation. The red ones have less DPS and less DPM, so they should be avoided at any cost.

As a comparison, that's what you get with chain-spamming Arcane Blasts: 3549.58 DPS, 4.46 DPM.


Looks like the optimal path is to use the Missile Barrage proc only with the maximum Arcane Blast (3) stack, and to cast at least one Arcane Blast before using Arcane Barrage. The more subsequent Arcane Blast casts you can afford to wait hoping for a Missile Barrage proc, the higher the DPS, but the lower the DPM.
This path is always efficient, because there is no other alternative path that would yield more DPS for a higher DPM ratio.

So here's my recommended rotation:

DPS/Burst:
  • If Missile Barrage procced, use it only with a full Arcane Blast (3) stack
  • Otherwise keep casting Arcane Blast, hoping for a Missile Barrage proc. Use Arcane Barrage to reset your stack as soon as you think you're using too much mana.
DPM/Recovering:
  • If Missile Barrage procced, use it not before having stacked the Arcane Blast debuff to 2-3
  • Cast no more than 3 subsequent Arcane Blasts. Reset the stack with Arcane Barrage if Missile Barrage don't procs.
That's all folks, I hope my calculations aren't too far off, and remember that your mileage may vary, as always

Going Arcane, Part 2 - Therorycrafting Basics

by Tachyon on Wed. 18. February 2009, 00:57

Filed under: arcane, spec, raiding, dps, patch, theorycrafting

As an arcane mage, your spell arsenal consists of:
  • Arcane Blast, Arcane Missiles and Arcane Barrage for single-target damage
  • PoM-Flamestrike and Blizzard for AoE (Area of Effect) damage

A good arcane talent spec that gets the optimum out the damage capabilities will put 3 points in fire (for Incineration, as it affects Arcane Blast), at least 11 points in frost to get Icy Veins and the rest in the arcane tree.

Personally I prefer to have 12 points in frost for more AoE damage (3/3 Ice Shards), so my recommended spec is something like this:
56/3/12 Arcane Raid Spec.


Some mages recommend more pushback protection by adding 3-4 points into Arcane Stability, but it's really hard to ditch some points there as it usually hurts other good talents.
Manly from Elitist Jerks even suggests a spec without Slow, and he's right for raiding as you really don't need the talent there, but boy I wouldn't run around without it outside a raid instance, so I'd rather sacrifice that points elsewhere, if at all.

I won't go into details for AoE damage in this article, as with the rotation above (and preferrable Arcane Power), it's straightforward to do massive(!) damage to multiple targets. So let's focus on the single target spells instead.

Arcane Blast - Rank 4
8% of base mana (261 Mana at lvl 80), 30 yd range, 2.5 sec cast
Blasts the target with energy, dealing 1185 to 1377 Arcane damage. Each time you cast Arcane Blast, the damage of all Arcane spells is increased by 15% and mana cost of Arcane Blast is increased by 200%. Effect stacks up to 3 times and lasts 10 sec or until any Arcane damage spell except Arcane Blast is cast.

Glyph of Arcane Blast: Increases the damage from your Arcane Blast buff by 3%. This makes the arcane blast debuff increase the damage by 3% per stack, so it's +18%, +36% and +54% for 1-3 stacks. That glyph is really recommended.

Spell Power Coefficient: 2.5/3.5+0.09 = 80.429%
The coefficient is scaled to the cast time (2.5sec), plus gets 9% from Arcane Empowerment (3/3).

Crit Multiplier (with 4xT7 + CSD): 1+(((1.5*1.03)-1)*(1+0.5+0.05)) = 1.84475
This includes the CSD meta gem (3%), the Spell Power talent (50%), the 4xT7 set bonus (5%). Without the 4xT7 bonus, it would be 1.8175, so it's not much of a difference. The CSD ( Chaotic Skyflare Diamond or Chaotic Skyfire Diamond) however is not negotiable, you're just expected to have it, no way round!

Arcane Missiles - Rank 13
31% of base mana (1013 Mana at lvl 80), 30 yd range, Channeled (5 bolts in 5 sec)
Launches Arcane Missiles at the enemy, causing 360-361 Arcane damage every 1 sec for 5 sec.

Spell Power Coefficient: 5/3.5+0.45 = 187.857%
The coefficient is scaled to the full channel time (5sec), plus gets 45% from Arcane Empowerment (3/3).

Crit Multiplier (with 4xT7 + CSD): 1+(((1.5*(1+0.03))-1)*(1+0.5+0.05+0.25)) = 1.981
This includes the CSD meta gem (3%), the Spell Power talent (50%), the 4xT7 set bonus (5%) and the Glyph of Arcane Missiles (25%). Without the glyph, the coefficient would be 1.84475, so the glyph increases your AM crits by 7.39%

Arcane Missiles become really nice when used on a Missile Barrage proc (20% proc chance after using Arcane Blast or Arcane Barrage), reducing the cast time by 2.5sec and thus doubling the DPS for that spell.

Arcane Barrage - Rank 3
18% of base mana (588 at lvl 80), 30 yd range, Instant cast, 3 sec cooldown
Launches several missiles at the enemy target, causing 936 to 1144 Arcane damage.

Spell Power Coefficient: 2.5/3.5 = 71.429%
This may not seem high, but take into account that this is an instant cast spell. The usual coefficient for instant cast spells will be weighted by the global cooldown time in place of the cast time, so it should be 1.5/3.5 = 42.857%. That's a significant boost, so this spell will scale extremely well with spell damage (66.7% more than compareable spells such as Fire Blast).

Crit Multiplier (with 4xT7 + CSD): 1+(((1.5*1.03)-1)*(1+0.5+0.05)) = 1.84475
This includes the CSD meta gem (3%), the Spell Power (2/2) talent (50%), the 4xT7 set bonus (5%).


Theorycrafting Scenario
For the following scenario, we consider a 57/3/11 standard raid spec with 2000 spell power, 35% crit and 10% haste, hit capped (100%).
Basically we could leave out the haste as well as all talents (Spell Power etc.) or raid buffs/auras that scale the DPS proportionally, as it affects all rotations equally, and your mileage may vary anyway. For comparing the spells and rotations, that scenario suffices well, and if you need exact numbers, just replace the numbers above with whatever works better for your.

Time to start the number crunching!

The average base damage for a spell will be:
avgBaseDmg:= (minDamage+maxDamage)/2
The effective cast time for a spell is the base cast time (or GCD for instant cast spells) divided by the speed multiplier from haste (1+haste). The GCD (Global Cooldown) is also affected by haste, but won't go below 1 sec. For our scenario, we take the 10% haste plus the 6% from talents (Netherwind Presence).
castTime := baseCastTime / (1 + haste)
The average damage is the base damage plus the spellpower times the coefficient, times any talents that multiply the damage (3% from Arcane Instability, +6% for ArcaneBlast with Spell Impact, and 12% in a raid scenario from Torment the Weak)
dmg(hit):= (avgBaseDmg + (spellpower * coefficient)) * multiplier
For the mana costs, we consider -3% from Arcane Focus, and -3% from Precision, but for the time being ignore any Arcane Concentration procs (just substract 10% from the average mana/sec in the end).

Here's what we get so far:
.Arcane BlastArcane BarrageArcane MissilesMissile Barrage
Dmg Avg135810401807.51807.5
Mana26158810131013
Mana /w talents245.34552.72952.22952.22
Cast Time2.501.505.002.50
Cast Time /w haste2.1551.2934.312.155
Coefficient /w talents80.429%71.429%187.857%187.857%
Dmg Avg2966.572468.575564.645564.64
Dmg Avg /w talents3233.562542.635731.585731.58
+Torment the Weak3621.592847.746419.376419.37

The average critical damage per spell is just the average damage, multiplied by the crit factor (Arcane Blast gets an extra 6% crit from Incineration):
dmg(crit):= dmg(hit) * critMultiplier
.Arcane BlastArcane BarrageArcane MissilesMissile Barrage
Crit Multiplier1.844751.844751.9811.981
Crit Dmg6680.935253.3812716.7812716.78

To find out the average damage, including crits, we'll have to weight that outcomes by the hit, crit and miss probabilities.
p(crit) := critChance * (1 - p(miss))
p(hit) := (1-critChance) * (1 - p(miss))
This leads us to the average damage numbers for our scenario. Divide those by the cast time and you get the DPS, or divide it by the mana cost to get the DPM.
.Arcane BlastArcane BarrageArcane MissilesMissile Barrage
Avg Dmg4967.703761.888812.398812.39
DPS2305.012909.192044.474088.95
DPM20.256.819.259.25

So far so good, we got the basic numbers we need to calculate our spell rotations in Part 3 of this series.

Going Arcane, Part 1 - Preface

by Tachyon on Wed. 18. February 2009, 00:51

Filed under: arcane, spec, raiding, dps, patch, theorycrafting

Two weeks before, I retired my Frostfire Bolt spec and joined the happy bunch of arcane specced fellows.

I hesitated long before I finally did this step, as this means that my raid will lose yet another scorch debuffer, and will have to run without the 10% crit debuff quite often.
This is a general design flaw by Blizzard, making the arcane tree too attractive compared to the frost or fire tree, causing lots of mages to skip the 10% crit debuff talents (Improved Scorch in the fire tree, Winter's Chill in the frost tree).

Anyway, I'm now Arcane specced, and will probably stay so for the near future. Patch 3.1.0 will bring some improvements for frost, but also the dual specs, so Frost will become an option again, purely for PvP, whilst Arcane will continue to dominate as PvE spec.



The last patches brought quite some nerfs for the Arcane specs, but don't worry, most of it affected the burst damage potential only, and PvE damage stays neraly as effective as it used to be.

The latest patch (3.0.9) reduced the glyphed damage boost of the Arcane Blast debuff (from 5% to 3%), reduced the spell power coefficient of Arcane Barrage (from 3/3.5 to 2.5/3.5), but also introduced an improved Arcane Missiles glyph, which increases the critical damage of the missiles.

When reading the blogs and forums lately, there seems to be a controversy about which spell rotations are now preferred, if Arcane Missiles should be cast even without Missile Barrage, how high to stack the Arcane Blast debuff, and whether using Arcane Barrage is still viable at all.
In the end I gave up on reading recommendations, especially as most of them were based more on claims that on evidence, and did the math for myself.

So that's the whole point of this arcane article series, to guide you through the calculations and considerations towards finding the proper spell rotations for arcane raiding.

Read on in Part 2 of the "Going Arcane" series.

WotLK release date confirmed - 13. Nov. 2008

by Tachyon on Tue. 16. September 2008, 00:49

Filed under: wotlk, expansion, release, raiding, items, qq, dps

In less than two months, the Wrath of the Lich King Expansion will be released, rendering the 'old' Burning Crusade content obsolete, and giving everyone a chance to start your raiding / PvP / whatsoever career anew.

Our guild is still stuck on Brutallus (we managed to take him down to 17% before the enrage phase), and I just heard that our raid leaders decided yesterday to no longer raid Black Temple / Mount Hyjal anymore but invest the remaining time to focus on Sunwell only.

Whilst I understand this decision, I has a backlash on me, as I'm still missing the fourth set item for my 4x T6 set bonus (which would give my Frostbolt / Fireball / AM a plain 5% damage bonus).

The missing item is Gloves of the Tempest whose token is dropped by Azgalor in Mount Hyjal, which I never managed to get, due to bad luck (last two times I attended a MH raid, Azgalor didn't drop any mage tokens at all), or bad circumstances (one of the MTs' alts was allowed to bid on it too last time I saw them drop, this was an exception but finally resulted in me not getting the gloves) or dropped raids (we didn't raid MH every week, for unknown reasons).

So if we refrain from raiding MH, my only chance to get the 4x T6 bonus would be to get the Bracers of the Tempest, whose token drops from Kalecgos, the first boss encounter in Sunwell. Of course the demand for the bracers is much higher than for the gloves, and Kalecgos is usually raided on Wednesday (the day I'm babysitting my two baby boys as my wife is attending her aerobic lessons), so my chances to get the 4x T6 bonus are not that good.

It's kind of a tragedy (or better: just sucks.), as without the bonus I'm missing 5% of the DPS I'd need for Brutallus to help contributing to the DPS we need to kill him.
This week's MH id has Azgalor and Archimonde still alive, but I hope but really doubt that we will visit MH tonight, on the last occasion, before we skip the instance completely.

Too bad for me, but it's the price you pay when you're in an achievement oriented guild as a casual raider.

Comforting hugs, cookies, or 'get up and fight!'-kicks are welcome, just drop them in the comments...

Brutallus

by Tachyon on Tue. 10. June 2008, 23:30

Filed under: brutallus, raiding, sunwell, mage, dps

Actually I intended to just play a few rounds of battleground PvP, and look for any groups seeking for a mage for the last couple of bosses in Zul'Aman (desperately need the trinket from Hex Lord Malacrass!), which is the usual things to do for me on half play evenings (I came online shortly before 22:00).

So I was quite surprised when recieving a whisper of Schayol in midst of a battle in Arathi Basin, if I'd feel like doing some learning tries on Brutallus. I didn't hesitate for a second, learning a new boss fight I never encountered before is always a challenge for me, although I'm convinced that my gear is yet not quite sufficient for sunwell bosses, especially for Brutallus.



Brutallus is the second boss in Sunwell Plateau (after Kalecgos). He's got 10 Mio. HP, and a Enrage-Timer of 6 minutes, which basically means that the raid has to deliver 27'777 DPS sustained to kill him before he runs havoc. Divided by the usual number of 16 DPS classes, this means that each one of them has to provide an average of 1736 DPS sustained, given that no one of them dies during the encounter. Quite a challenge, that is, so advantage of each and every DPS buff has to me made, from Destruction Potions, Flame Caps to Drums of Battle, to live up to such a high DPS score.

My mage's equipment consists of a wild mix of T6 (robe, shoulders, 2 rings), T5, heroic badge rewards, PvP items and further items of dubious origin (Karazhan, Zul'Aman, crafted BoE), not quite at the level of a T6 mage. What especially hurts is not having the 4x T6 bonus (5% increased damage for Frostbolt and Fireball), gimping my damage output compared to the other DPSers in the raid.
At the moment, I'm at 1206 spell damage, 126 spell hit rating (capped for frostbolt), 69 spell haste and a mere 187 crit rating, that's quite below the stats I think I ought to have for Brutallus.

But as the raid's main goal was not to kill the boss by hook or by crook, but rather gather a solid feeling for the encounter and learn to handle the tactic and timing, it didn't matter that much, so I enjoyed the wiping and checked how well I'd do in terms of DPS.

The entire raid DPS was very low, as we did the tries unbuffed (half of the raid at least used some flasks/elixirs/buff food to check where in the DPS spectrum they lie). The group setup wasn't ideal either (I did have a shaman in my group, but the moonkin with the tasty 5% crit aura was in the other two mages' group), and we didn't use the Destruction Potions and Drums of Battle yet, but nevertheless the DPS was to weak overall.

I managed to settle on 1650 DPS, not really bad, but there's definitely some room for improvement (4x T6 bonus missing), but at least I was among the 4-8 top DPS in the damage meters.
One point that amazed me was our warlocks' DPS, they were the only ones to make more than 2000 DPS. It's sick how they scale with gear, compared to us mages...

The low DPS wasn't really a problem at that evening, as we happened to wipe always long before reaching the enrage timer (best try was 4:30 min), so we first have to learn how not to bite the dust before the damage issues get addressed.

I assume that the raid will manage to beat Brutallus within the next 1-2 weeks; the gear is more than on a ok level for almost everyone in the raid, and once we manage to keep our damage dealers alive until the enrage and learn how to maximize our DPS, the boss shall finally fall...
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