PTR 3.1 open

by Tachyon on Wed. 25. February 2009, 00:06

Filed under: ptr, patch, test realm

The public test realm (PTR) servers for patch 3.1 are now open. As always, you can download the PTR client from http://www.worldofwarcraft.com/ptr (US) or http://www.wow-europe.com/ptr (EU).



Big additions/changes at a glimpse:

• Dual Spec, allowing characters to have two talent specializations (along with a dedicated set of glyphs and key bindings). Learning how to dual spec will cost a one-time fee of 1000g.
• Ulduar, a new 25/10 man raid instance, defining the new raid tier (with hopefully increased difficulty)
• Lots of (mostly minor) class changes

A very comprehensive list of documented and undocumented changes can as usually be found at MMO-Champion.com.

Here's the changes that affect our class:

Mage - Spell/Talent changes

• ARCANE
  
  • Mage Armor has been increased to allow 50% of your mana regneration to continue while casting (previously 30%)
    Change due to mana regeneration rebalancing (compensates for the decreased base mana regeneration from spirit, so it should even out in the end.)
  • Polymorph Rabbit (new spell)
    What is this polymorph I keep hearing about? Oh...gaaah, it has a new Icon!
  • Arcane Meditation (Tier 4) Allows 17/33/50% of your mana regeneration to continue while casting. (Previously 10/20/30%)
    Change due to mana regeneration rebalancing.
• FIRE
  
  • Burnout (Tier 10) now only affects Fire Spells. (Previously affected all spells)
    Doesn't really affect PvE as all spells in your rotation are fire anyway, but it's a slight nerf for PvP. Or not. As you won't spec fire for PvP. Nevermind.
  • Pyromaniac (Tier 7) now allows 17/33/50% of your mana regeneration to continue while casting. (Previously 10/20/30%)
    Change due to mana regeneration rebalancing
• FROST
  
  • Improved Water Elemental (Tier 9) has been renamed Enduring Winter. It now increases the duration of your Summon Water Elemental spell by 5 sec and your Frostbolt spell has a 33/66/100% chance to grant the Replenishment effect to up to 10 party or raid members mana regeneration equal to 0.25% of their maximum mana per second for 15 sec.
    What's the point? Frost is still subpar in PvE raiding, especially with dual spec no sane mage will spec frost for raiding, so again, what's the point?
    Only when the healers would get completely screwed with mana regeneration, only then they would call for frost mages in the raid (Mana Battery 2.0?), but hey what are we, in the supporter role?
    

Glyph changes

• Glyph of Ice Lance
  Your Ice Lance now causes 4 times damage against frozen targets higher level than you instead of triple damage. (Old: Increases the range of your Ice Lance by 5 yards)
  You're quite unlikely to meet lvl81+ opposites in PvP before the next addon, so this change seems to be targeted at raiding. As bosses can't be frozen, this effect is limited to the 2 charges of the Fingers of Frost proc, but unless they changed the way the charges are consumed (immediately as they're a player buff, not a target debuff), combos are not viable, and I assume it's still better to cast 2 Frostbolts in a row than 1 Frostbolt+1 Ice Lance or 2 Ice Lances. And frost stays dead for raiding, remember?
  
• Glyph of Ice Armor
  Your Ice Armor and Frost Armor spells grant an additional 50% armor and resistance. (Old: 20%)
  Nice for PvP against meele. But is it worth having that glyph, compared to the other ones?
• Glyph of Deep Freeze *new*
  Increases the range of Deep Freeze by 10 yards.
  Nice if it's a minor glyph, which doubtly it is...
• Glyph of Living Bomb *new*
  The periodic damage from your Living Bomb can now be critical strikes.
  Minor buff
• Glyph of Arcane Barrage *new*
  Reduces the mana cost of Arcane Barrage by 20%.
  Not really worth having it, as your spell cycle will mostly consist of AB/MBarr with only the occasional ABarr. Besides that, it's AB that's the great mana hog, not ABarr.
  
• Glyph of Mirror Image *new*
  Your Mirror Images gain the Winter's Chill talent, granting their Frostbolt spell a 100% chance to apply the Winter's Chill effect, which increases the chance spells will critically hit the target by 1% for 15 sec. Stacks up to 5 times.
  This won't really compensate for the lack of Frost or Fire mages in raids. But it's better than nothing.
• Glyph of Ice Barrier *new*
  Increases the amount of damage absorbed by your Ice Barrier by 30%.
  Nice, mandatory for PvP

These are not the final patch notes for 3.1, but in my eyes Blizzard failed again to make Frost viable for raiding again, and making Fire viable for PvP.
Most of the changes a so minor it's embarrasing, but at least we get the dual spec.

I'm still downloading and installing the PTR client (I already performed the character copy on the weekend), so I think I'll be able to bring you more news from the PTR this week (with a little luck also some first hand experience with Ulduar raiding).

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Going Arcane, Part 3 - Spell Rotations

by Tachyon on Fri. 20. February 2009, 00:22

Filed under: arcane, spec, raiding, dps, patch, theorycrafting

In part 2 of this series, we introduced the theorycrafting basics to calculate the average DPS for the single target arcane spells, as well as the DPM. Now let's look into possible spell rotations.

The arcane spec allows to dynamically tweak the DPS/DPM depending on how many subsequent Arcane Blasts are cast.

The Arcane Blast debuff

Remember that Arcane Blast applies a stackable debuff (up to 3 times), which increases the damage of the next arcane spell by 15% (18% with the Arcane Blast glyph) per stack, but also increases the mana cost of the next Arcane Blast by 200%.
Casting Arcane Missiles or Arcane Barrage will consume that buff and thus reset the stack. Note also that those spells will profit from the increased damage, but will not get a mana penalty.

• Arcane Blast, 1 stack: increases damage by 18%, next AB costs 3x its base mana
• Arcane Blast, 2 stacks: increases damage by 36%, next AB costs 5x its base mana
• Arcane Blast, 3 stacks: increases damage by 54%, next AB costs 7x its base mana

Being to lazy to do all the calculations in a spreadsheet, I wrote a small simulation program in Java instead. Here's the outcome:

DPS/DPM for arcane cast sequences

Rotation	Damage	Time	DPS	Mana	DPM	Mana/sec
ABx1	4968.000	2.155	2305.150	245.000	20.280	113.680
ABx2	10830.000	4.310	2512.560	980.000	11.050	227.360
ABx3	17586.000	6.466	2719.970	2205.000	7.980	341.040
ABx4	25236.000	8.621	2927.380	3920.000	6.440	454.720
ABx5	32886.000	10.776	3051.820	5635.000	5.840	522.928
ABx10	71136.000	21.552	3300.710	14210.000	5.010	659.344
ABx100000	764994636.000	215517.241	3549.580	171497060.000	4.460	795.746
ABx0, ABarr	3762.000	1.293	2909.280	553.000	6.800	427.653
ABx1, ABarr	9407.000	3.448	2728.030	798.000	11.790	231.420
ABx2, ABarr	15946.000	5.603	2845.750	1533.000	10.400	273.582
ABx3, ABarr	23379.000	7.759	3013.290	2758.000	8.480	355.476
ABx4, ABarr	31029.000	9.914	3129.880	4473.000	6.940	451.190
ABx5, ABarr	38679.000	12.069	3204.830	6188.000	6.250	512.720
ABx0, Mbarr	8812.000	2.155	4088.770	952.000	9.260	441.728
ABx1, Mbarr	15367.000	4.310	3565.140	1197.000	12.840	277.704
ABx2, Mbarr	22815.000	6.466	3528.720	1932.000	11.810	298.816
ABx3, Mbarr	31157.000	8.621	3614.210	3157.000	9.870	366.212
ABx4, Mbarr	38807.000	10.776	3601.290	4872.000	7.970	452.122
ABx5, Mbarr	46457.000	12.931	3592.670	6587.000	7.050	509.395
ABx0, AM	8812.000	4.310	2044.380	952.000	9.260	220.864
ABx1, AM	15367.000	6.466	2376.760	1197.000	12.840	185.136
ABx2, AM	22815.000	8.621	2646.540	1932.000	11.810	224.112
ABx3, AM	31157.000	10.776	2891.370	3157.000	9.870	292.970
ABx4, AM	38807.000	12.931	3001.070	4872.000	7.970	376.768
ABx5, AM	46457.000	15.086	3079.440	6587.000	7.050	436.624

(AB = Arcane Blast, ABxN = N subsequent AB casts (max. 3 stacks), ABarr = Arcane Barrage, AM = Arcane Missiles, MBarr = AM cast on Missile Barrage)

A first approach towards a new cast sequence

According to these results, you get the highest DPS cycle when using Missile Barrage procs as early as possible. Arcane Missiles however should never be cast without Missile Barrage procs, the DPS is just not competitive without it.

So my first approach (Rotation_Tachyon)was following:

• Cast AM when MBarr procs, no mater how many stacks of AB you have
• Otherwise cast AB, stack maximally to 3, then use ABarr if MBarr didn't proc

Running the simulation with this rotation (1'000'000 spells cast) resulted in:
Rotation_Tachyon: 3279.46 DPS, 9.58 DPM

Then I wanted to compare this to the classic rotation:

• Cast AB until you have 3 stacks
• Cast AM if MBarr procced, otherwise cast ABarr

Rotation_Classic: 3351.04 DPS, 9.27 DPM

To my surprise, the classic rotation still had slightly more DPS. This is confusing, as the rotation involved less MBarr procs than the first rotation. I'd have expected to see higher DPS when using more of the high DPS sequences, but obviously that was not the case. To explain this effect, it's crucial to know how to calculate the DPS/DPM of mixed rotations.

Spell rotation: DPS/DPM of mixed cast sequences

The best cast sequence above, ABx0,Mbarr is only sustained for a very short time, so it contributes less to the overall DPS than other rotations which have a longer run time.

The total DPS contribution of a cast sequence is therefore to be weighted by the length of the sequence, the DPS during that lenght, and the probability you are casting it.
DPS := sum(DPS[i]*t[i]*p[i]) / sum(t[i]*p[i])
where DPS[i] is the DPS of Sequence_i, t[i] is the cast time of Sequence_i, and p is the probability (or percentage of times) we use Sequence_i.

To determine the probabilities, the simulation comes to aid again. Results:
RotationTachyon:
ABx3, ABarr 46.5139%
ABx1, MBarr 18.0682%
ABx2, MBarr 14.4659%
ABx3, MBarr 11.6308%
ABx0, MBarr 9.3213%
RotationClassic:
ABx3, MBarr: 53.5976%
ABx3, ABarr: 46.4024%
The calculated weighted DPS matches the results of the simulated DPS, so you can take that formula along with the probabilities as given fact for your own theorycrafting calculations.

In conclusion, the best approach is to use the longest cast sequences that give you good DPS without wasting too much mana, as they often contribute more to the effective DPS than short cast sequences with slightly higher DPS.

Generic pattern of arcane rotations

Basically, every arcane rotation follows the same pattern:

• If Missile Barrage procced, use it after at least A subsequent Arcane Blast casts
• If Missile Barrage didn't proc after B subsequent Arcane Blast casts, cast Arcane Barrage instead

There are two paramenters in there, A and B. My suggested rotation was A=0,B=3, while the classic rotation is A=3,B=3.

Using the simulation, I calculated the DPS and DPM for the configurations A=0..6, B=0..6, and here's the result:

.	A=0	A=1	A=2	A=3	A=4	A=5
B=0	3204 DPS 7.43 DPM	3171 DPS 8.62 DPM	3219 DPS 8.86 DPM	3312 DPS 8.44 DPM	3343 DPS 7.55 DPM	3366 DPS 6.98 DPM
B=1	3028 DPS 11.66 DPM	3029 DPS 12.21 DPM	3095 DPS 11.8 DPM	3196 DPS 10.56 DPM	3238 DPS 8.99 DPM	3271 DPS 8.06 DPM
B=2	3136 DPS 10.93 DPM	3132 DPS 11.23 DPM	3165 DPS 11.09 DPM	3262 DPS 10.08 DPM	3296 DPS 8.67 DPM	3321 DPS 7.84 DPM
B=3	3278 DPS 9.58 DPM	3272 DPS 9.75 DPM	3286 DPS 9.78 DPM	3351 DPS 9.27 DPM	3374 DPS 8.13 DPM	3394 DPS 7.43 DPM
B=4	3371 DPS 8.36 DPM	3363 DPS 8.47 DPM	3370 DPS 8.56 DPM	3417 DPS 8.34 DPM	3432 DPS 7.6 DPM	3445 DPS 7.02 DPM
B=5	3428 DPS 7.78 DPM	3422 DPS 7.85 DPM	3425 DPS 7.96 DPM	3462 DPS 7.83 DPM	3470 DPS 7.27 DPM	3479 DPS 6.82 DPM
B=6	3467 DPS 7.44 DPM	3462 DPS 7.49 DPM	3462 DPS 7.59 DPM	3493 DPS 7.52 DPM	3498 DPS 7.07 DPM	3503 DPS 6.68 DPM
B=7	3493 DPS 7.22 DPM	3489 DPS 7.26 DPM	3488 DPS 7.36 DPM	3516 DPS 7.32 DPM	3518 DPS 6.92 DPM	3521 DPS 6.58 DPM
B=8	3513 DPS 7.08 DPM	3510 DPS 7.1 DPM	3508 DPS 7.21 DPM	3532 DPS 7.17 DPM	3534 DPS 6.83 DPM	3535 DPS 6.51 DPM
B=9	3527 DPS 6.97 DPM	3525 DPS 6.99 DPM	3521 DPS 7.08 DPM	3545 DPS 7.06 DPM	3546 DPS 6.76 DPM	3546 DPS 6.46 DPM

In the table above, I grayed out every rotation for which there is a better (more DPS and more DPM) alternative rotation in the table. The remaining rotations have either better DPS or better DPM than any other rotation in the table.

To put the result in a more relative context, let's take the classic rotation (A=3, B=3) as a base (100%) and compare the relative differences:

.	A=0	A=1	A=2	A=3	A=4	A=5
B=0	-4.4% DPS -19.8% DPM	-5.4% DPS -7.0% DPM	-3.9% DPS -4.4% DPM	-1.2% DPS -9.0% DPM	-0.2% DPS -18.6% DPM	+0.5% DPS -24.7% DPM
B=1	-9.6% DPS +25.8% DPM	-9.6% DPS +31.7% DPM	-7.6% DPS +27.3% DPM	-4.6% DPS +13.9% DPM	-3.3% DPS -3.0% DPM	-2.4% DPS -13.1% DPM
B=2	-6.4% DPS +17.9% DPM	-6.5% DPS +21.1% DPM	-5.5% DPS +19.6% DPM	-2.6% DPS +8.7% DPM	-1.6% DPS -6.5% DPM	-0.9% DPS -15.4% DPM
B=3	-2.2% DPS +3.3% DPM	-2.4% DPS +5.2% DPM	-1.9% DPS +5.5% DPM	+0.0% DPS +0.0% DPM	+0.7% DPS -12.3% DPM	+1.3% DPS -19.8% DPM
B=4	+0.6% DPS -9.8% DPM	+0.4% DPS -8.6% DPM	+0.6% DPS -7.7% DPM	+2.0% DPS -10.0% DPM	+2.4% DPS -18.0% DPM	+2.8% DPS -24.3% DPM
B=5	+2.3% DPS -16.1% DPM	+2.1% DPS -15.3% DPM	+2.2% DPS -14.1% DPM	+3.3% DPS -15.5% DPM	+3.6% DPS -21.6% DPM	+3.8% DPS -26.4% DPM
B=6	+3.5% DPS -19.7% DPM	+3.3% DPS -19.2% DPM	+3.3% DPS -18.1% DPM	+4.3% DPS -18.9% DPM	+4.4% DPS -23.7% DPM	+4.5% DPS -27.9% DPM
B=7	+4.3% DPS -22.1% DPM	+4.1% DPS -21.7% DPM	+4.1% DPS -20.6% DPM	+5.0% DPS -21.0% DPM	+5.0% DPS -25.4% DPM	+5.1% DPS -29.0% DPM
B=8	+4.9% DPS -23.6% DPM	+4.8% DPS -23.4% DPM	+4.7% DPS -22.2% DPM	+5.4% DPS -22.7% DPM	+5.5% DPS -26.3% DPM	+5.5% DPS -29.8% DPM
B=9	+5.3% DPS -24.8% DPM	+5.2% DPS -24.6% DPM	+5.1% DPS -23.6% DPM	+5.8% DPS -23.8% DPM	+5.8% DPS -27.1% DPM	+5.8% DPS -30.3% DPM

Again, the grayed out rotations are to be avoided since there is a better alternative rotation with higher DPS and DPM.
The blue colored rotations are the ones with higher DPS, and the green colored rotations have a higher DPM ratio that the classic rotation. The red ones have less DPS and less DPM, so they should be avoided at any cost.

As a comparison, that's what you get with chain-spamming Arcane Blasts: 3549.58 DPS, 4.46 DPM.


Looks like the optimal path is to use the Missile Barrage proc only with the maximum Arcane Blast (3) stack, and to cast at least one Arcane Blast before using Arcane Barrage. The more subsequent Arcane Blast casts you can afford to wait hoping for a Missile Barrage proc, the higher the DPS, but the lower the DPM.
This path is always efficient, because there is no other alternative path that would yield more DPS for a higher DPM ratio.

So here's my recommended rotation:

DPS/Burst:

• If Missile Barrage procced, use it only with a full Arcane Blast (3) stack
• Otherwise keep casting Arcane Blast, hoping for a Missile Barrage proc. Use Arcane Barrage to reset your stack as soon as you think you're using too much mana.

DPM/Recovering:

• If Missile Barrage procced, use it not before having stacked the Arcane Blast debuff to 2-3
• Cast no more than 3 subsequent Arcane Blasts. Reset the stack with Arcane Barrage if Missile Barrage don't procs.

That's all folks, I hope my calculations aren't too far off, and remember that your mileage may vary, as always

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Going Arcane, Part 2 - Therorycrafting Basics

by Tachyon on Wed. 18. February 2009, 00:57

Filed under: arcane, spec, raiding, dps, patch, theorycrafting

As an arcane mage, your spell arsenal consists of:

• Arcane Blast, Arcane Missiles and Arcane Barrage for single-target damage
• PoM-Flamestrike and Blizzard for AoE (Area of Effect) damage

A good arcane talent spec that gets the optimum out the damage capabilities will put 3 points in fire (for Incineration, as it affects Arcane Blast), at least 11 points in frost to get Icy Veins and the rest in the arcane tree.

Personally I prefer to have 12 points in frost for more AoE damage (3/3 Ice Shards), so my recommended spec is something like this:
56/3/12 Arcane Raid Spec.


Some mages recommend more pushback protection by adding 3-4 points into Arcane Stability, but it's really hard to ditch some points there as it usually hurts other good talents.
Manly from Elitist Jerks even suggests a spec without Slow, and he's right for raiding as you really don't need the talent there, but boy I wouldn't run around without it outside a raid instance, so I'd rather sacrifice that points elsewhere, if at all.

I won't go into details for AoE damage in this article, as with the rotation above (and preferrable Arcane Power), it's straightforward to do massive(!) damage to multiple targets. So let's focus on the single target spells instead.

Arcane Blast - Rank 4
8% of base mana (261 Mana at lvl 80), 30 yd range, 2.5 sec cast
Blasts the target with energy, dealing 1185 to 1377 Arcane damage. Each time you cast Arcane Blast, the damage of all Arcane spells is increased by 15% and mana cost of Arcane Blast is increased by 200%. Effect stacks up to 3 times and lasts 10 sec or until any Arcane damage spell except Arcane Blast is cast.

Glyph of Arcane Blast: Increases the damage from your Arcane Blast buff by 3%. This makes the arcane blast debuff increase the damage by 3% per stack, so it's +18%, +36% and +54% for 1-3 stacks. That glyph is really recommended.

Spell Power Coefficient: 2.5/3.5+0.09 = 80.429%
The coefficient is scaled to the cast time (2.5sec), plus gets 9% from Arcane Empowerment (3/3).

Crit Multiplier (with 4xT7 + CSD): 1+(((1.5*1.03)-1)*(1+0.5+0.05)) = 1.84475
This includes the CSD meta gem (3%), the Spell Power talent (50%), the 4xT7 set bonus (5%). Without the 4xT7 bonus, it would be 1.8175, so it's not much of a difference. The CSD ( Chaotic Skyflare Diamond or Chaotic Skyfire Diamond) however is not negotiable, you're just expected to have it, no way round!

Arcane Missiles - Rank 13
31% of base mana (1013 Mana at lvl 80), 30 yd range, Channeled (5 bolts in 5 sec)
Launches Arcane Missiles at the enemy, causing 360-361 Arcane damage every 1 sec for 5 sec.

Spell Power Coefficient: 5/3.5+0.45 = 187.857%
The coefficient is scaled to the full channel time (5sec), plus gets 45% from Arcane Empowerment (3/3).

Crit Multiplier (with 4xT7 + CSD): 1+(((1.5*(1+0.03))-1)*(1+0.5+0.05+0.25)) = 1.981
This includes the CSD meta gem (3%), the Spell Power talent (50%), the 4xT7 set bonus (5%) and the Glyph of Arcane Missiles (25%). Without the glyph, the coefficient would be 1.84475, so the glyph increases your AM crits by 7.39%

Arcane Missiles become really nice when used on a Missile Barrage proc (20% proc chance after using Arcane Blast or Arcane Barrage), reducing the cast time by 2.5sec and thus doubling the DPS for that spell.

Arcane Barrage - Rank 3
18% of base mana (588 at lvl 80), 30 yd range, Instant cast, 3 sec cooldown
Launches several missiles at the enemy target, causing 936 to 1144 Arcane damage.

Spell Power Coefficient: 2.5/3.5 = 71.429%
This may not seem high, but take into account that this is an instant cast spell. The usual coefficient for instant cast spells will be weighted by the global cooldown time in place of the cast time, so it should be 1.5/3.5 = 42.857%. That's a significant boost, so this spell will scale extremely well with spell damage (66.7% more than compareable spells such as Fire Blast).

Crit Multiplier (with 4xT7 + CSD): 1+(((1.5*1.03)-1)*(1+0.5+0.05)) = 1.84475
This includes the CSD meta gem (3%), the Spell Power (2/2) talent (50%), the 4xT7 set bonus (5%).


Theorycrafting Scenario
For the following scenario, we consider a 57/3/11 standard raid spec with 2000 spell power, 35% crit and 10% haste, hit capped (100%).
Basically we could leave out the haste as well as all talents (Spell Power etc.) or raid buffs/auras that scale the DPS proportionally, as it affects all rotations equally, and your mileage may vary anyway. For comparing the spells and rotations, that scenario suffices well, and if you need exact numbers, just replace the numbers above with whatever works better for your.

Time to start the number crunching!

The average base damage for a spell will be:
avgBaseDmg:= (minDamage+maxDamage)/2
The effective cast time for a spell is the base cast time (or GCD for instant cast spells) divided by the speed multiplier from haste (1+haste). The GCD (Global Cooldown) is also affected by haste, but won't go below 1 sec. For our scenario, we take the 10% haste plus the 6% from talents (Netherwind Presence).
castTime := baseCastTime / (1 + haste)
The average damage is the base damage plus the spellpower times the coefficient, times any talents that multiply the damage (3% from Arcane Instability, +6% for ArcaneBlast with Spell Impact, and 12% in a raid scenario from Torment the Weak)
dmg(hit):= (avgBaseDmg + (spellpower * coefficient)) * multiplier
For the mana costs, we consider -3% from Arcane Focus, and -3% from Precision, but for the time being ignore any Arcane Concentration procs (just substract 10% from the average mana/sec in the end).

Here's what we get so far:

.	Arcane Blast	Arcane Barrage	Arcane Missiles	Missile Barrage
Dmg Avg	1358	1040	1807.5	1807.5
Mana	261	588	1013	1013
Mana /w talents	245.34	552.72	952.22	952.22
Cast Time	2.50	1.50	5.00	2.50
Cast Time /w haste	2.155	1.293	4.31	2.155
Coefficient /w talents	80.429%	71.429%	187.857%	187.857%
Dmg Avg	2966.57	2468.57	5564.64	5564.64
Dmg Avg /w talents	3233.56	2542.63	5731.58	5731.58
+Torment the Weak	3621.59	2847.74	6419.37	6419.37

The average critical damage per spell is just the average damage, multiplied by the crit factor (Arcane Blast gets an extra 6% crit from Incineration):
dmg(crit):= dmg(hit) * critMultiplier

.	Arcane Blast	Arcane Barrage	Arcane Missiles	Missile Barrage
Crit Multiplier	1.84475	1.84475	1.981	1.981
Crit Dmg	6680.93	5253.38	12716.78	12716.78

To find out the average damage, including crits, we'll have to weight that outcomes by the hit, crit and miss probabilities.
p(crit) := critChance * (1 - p(miss))
p(hit) := (1-critChance) * (1 - p(miss))
This leads us to the average damage numbers for our scenario. Divide those by the cast time and you get the DPS, or divide it by the mana cost to get the DPM.

.	Arcane Blast	Arcane Barrage	Arcane Missiles	Missile Barrage
Avg Dmg	4967.70	3761.88	8812.39	8812.39
DPS	2305.01	2909.19	2044.47	4088.95
DPM	20.25	6.81	9.25	9.25

So far so good, we got the basic numbers we need to calculate our spell rotations in Part 3 of this series.

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Going Arcane, Part 1 - Preface

by Tachyon on Wed. 18. February 2009, 00:51

Filed under: arcane, spec, raiding, dps, patch, theorycrafting

Two weeks before, I retired my Frostfire Bolt spec and joined the happy bunch of arcane specced fellows.

I hesitated long before I finally did this step, as this means that my raid will lose yet another scorch debuffer, and will have to run without the 10% crit debuff quite often.
This is a general design flaw by Blizzard, making the arcane tree too attractive compared to the frost or fire tree, causing lots of mages to skip the 10% crit debuff talents (Improved Scorch in the fire tree, Winter's Chill in the frost tree).

Anyway, I'm now Arcane specced, and will probably stay so for the near future. Patch 3.1.0 will bring some improvements for frost, but also the dual specs, so Frost will become an option again, purely for PvP, whilst Arcane will continue to dominate as PvE spec.



The last patches brought quite some nerfs for the Arcane specs, but don't worry, most of it affected the burst damage potential only, and PvE damage stays neraly as effective as it used to be.

The latest patch (3.0.9) reduced the glyphed damage boost of the Arcane Blast debuff (from 5% to 3%), reduced the spell power coefficient of Arcane Barrage (from 3/3.5 to 2.5/3.5), but also introduced an improved Arcane Missiles glyph, which increases the critical damage of the missiles.

When reading the blogs and forums lately, there seems to be a controversy about which spell rotations are now preferred, if Arcane Missiles should be cast even without Missile Barrage, how high to stack the Arcane Blast debuff, and whether using Arcane Barrage is still viable at all.
In the end I gave up on reading recommendations, especially as most of them were based more on claims that on evidence, and did the math for myself.

So that's the whole point of this arcane article series, to guide you through the calculations and considerations towards finding the proper spell rotations for arcane raiding.

Read on in Part 2 of the "Going Arcane" series.

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